Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction – Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner – 2015, Simon & Schuster
Superforecasting investigates the skills and habits of exceptionally accurate forecasters, revealing that accurate prediction is a learnable skill, not an innate talent.
It explores the cognitive and behavioral patterns that differentiate superforecasters from others.
The book emerged from a large-scale forecasting tournament initiated to improve intelligence gathering.
