Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? – Philip E. Tetlock – 2005, Princeton University Press
This book analyzes the accuracy of political forecasts, revealing that expertise doesn’t guarantee better predictions and highlighting the cognitive traits of successful forecasters.
It provides a critical look at intelligence gathering and decision-making processes in the wake of geopolitical events.
The research challenges assumptions about expertise and emphasizes the importance of probabilistic thinking and continuous learning.
